Waiting on the Thaw: The Joe’s Pond Ice Out Contest - Year 38
March 12, 2026
Joshua Smith
Well into another long, cold Vermont winter, the question starts making the rounds again at kitchen tables, in store aisles, and over morning coffee: when is the ice going out on Joe’s Pond? If you’ve ever spent a March day watching snow fall sideways and then caught a sudden warm breeze that smells like spring, you know exactly why the Joe’s Pond Ice Out Contest exists. It’s part tradition, part cabin-fever cure, and part community fundraiser—and it’s been keeping people guessing for decades.
This season marks the 38th year of the contest, and the rules are still wonderfully simple: tickets are $1 apiece, and you pick the date and time you think the ice will officially “go out.” Right now, the pond is still very much in winter mode—there are multiple shanties out there, snow is still in the forecast, and the ice pack remains thick. The latest report puts Joe’s Pond at 27 inches of mostly white ice, not the hard, clear kind. The local “ice thinkers” say that could be good news for the spring-watchers: white ice often melts faster than clear ice when the sun and warmer days finally get serious.
In recent years, Joe’s Pond has made us wait. The past three years, the official ice-out has landed in mid-April, which feels both predictable and also completely subject to Mother Nature’s mood swings. One cold snap or one week of steady rain can change everything. That’s why people keep playing. There’s no perfect formula—just a mix of hunches, memories, weather-watching, and a little hopeful guessing.
The contest itself started as friendly wagering in the 1980s. Jules Chatot, a regular winter visitor to his camp, noticed how often the topic came up when folks stopped for coffee or supplies in West Danville. Someone would always ask, “When do you think the ice is going out?” Pretty soon, people were tossing in a dollar, and Jules was recording guesses in a notebook. By 1987, the idea had grown enough that it was turned into an official contest, complete with an “official” way to record the moment ice-out happens.
The method is as low-tech and beloved as it gets: a clock sits on a deck, tethered to a cinder block wired to a pallet set out on the ice. When the ice finally lets go and the block drops, the connection breaks, and the clock stops—capturing the official ice-out time. Over the years the system has been improved, the record-keeping went from notebook to database, and now there are well over 12,000 entries each year, including players from across the country and beyond.
Half the proceeds (after expenses) go to the winner(s), and the other half supports the Joe’s Pond Association, helping fund water quality programs and community efforts. Last year’s winner, John Vincent of Wadsworth, Ohio, took home $7,790—proof that you don’t need to live nearby to get lucky.
If you want in on the guessing, tickets are sold at multiple local locations—including Hastings Store in West Danville, where spring predictions and friendly debate are practically part of the checkout line. Or, if you’re playing from farther away (or just want the easy option), you can buy tickets online at joespondvermont.com
This season marks the 38th year of the contest, and the rules are still wonderfully simple: tickets are $1 apiece, and you pick the date and time you think the ice will officially “go out.” Right now, the pond is still very much in winter mode—there are multiple shanties out there, snow is still in the forecast, and the ice pack remains thick. The latest report puts Joe’s Pond at 27 inches of mostly white ice, not the hard, clear kind. The local “ice thinkers” say that could be good news for the spring-watchers: white ice often melts faster than clear ice when the sun and warmer days finally get serious.
In recent years, Joe’s Pond has made us wait. The past three years, the official ice-out has landed in mid-April, which feels both predictable and also completely subject to Mother Nature’s mood swings. One cold snap or one week of steady rain can change everything. That’s why people keep playing. There’s no perfect formula—just a mix of hunches, memories, weather-watching, and a little hopeful guessing.
The contest itself started as friendly wagering in the 1980s. Jules Chatot, a regular winter visitor to his camp, noticed how often the topic came up when folks stopped for coffee or supplies in West Danville. Someone would always ask, “When do you think the ice is going out?” Pretty soon, people were tossing in a dollar, and Jules was recording guesses in a notebook. By 1987, the idea had grown enough that it was turned into an official contest, complete with an “official” way to record the moment ice-out happens.
The method is as low-tech and beloved as it gets: a clock sits on a deck, tethered to a cinder block wired to a pallet set out on the ice. When the ice finally lets go and the block drops, the connection breaks, and the clock stops—capturing the official ice-out time. Over the years the system has been improved, the record-keeping went from notebook to database, and now there are well over 12,000 entries each year, including players from across the country and beyond.
Half the proceeds (after expenses) go to the winner(s), and the other half supports the Joe’s Pond Association, helping fund water quality programs and community efforts. Last year’s winner, John Vincent of Wadsworth, Ohio, took home $7,790—proof that you don’t need to live nearby to get lucky.
If you want in on the guessing, tickets are sold at multiple local locations—including Hastings Store in West Danville, where spring predictions and friendly debate are practically part of the checkout line. Or, if you’re playing from farther away (or just want the easy option), you can buy tickets online at joespondvermont.com
The contest clock stands ready on shore at Joe’s Pond, linked by a line stretching out onto the ice—when the cinder block drops, the clock stops, recording the official Ice Out time.
A volunteer hauls the Ice Out contest gear across the frozen surface of Joe’s Pond, setting the season’s simple system in motion: a tethered pallet and marker that will drop when the ice finally lets go.
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